The real estate market has been booming in Southern Arizona and housing experts see positive trends in the Tucson housing market 2020. If you are looking at buying an investment property in Tucson, you'll find all the housing statistics on this page to help you make a sound decision. The Tucson real estate market hit the news a decade ago for hitting incredible highs before the average home value was cut in half. However, its slow recovery has been overlooked by the media and investors alike. With a strong economy and low mortgage rates, buyer activity has been strong in this region.
The housing inventory levels are still below historical norms. With supply and demand continuing to favor sellers prices continue to rise in the Tucson real estate market. The Tucson housing market is seeing moderately strong demand, but it is nowhere near the insanely overheated conditions it saw in the 2008 housing bust. Last year, the median sales price increased by 12.3 percent to $252,750 for single-family homes. For townhouses and condos, the median sales price increased by 18.4 percent to $166,000.
Months supply of inventory of homes for sale decreased 30.8 percent for single-family homes and 22.2 percent for townhouse/condo. Mortgage rates ended the year close to three-quarters of a percent lower than a year ago, helping to improve affordability and offset rising home prices. New construction was on the rise and is expected to continue into 2020, but many experts note new units are still fewer than needed to meet the demand in the Tucson housing market 2020. Even with improved economic conditions and increased population growth, homebuilding activity increased only moderately, to an average of 2,350 homes a year from 2012 through 2017. During the 12 months ending March 2019, 3,175 homes were permitted, up from the 3,000 homes permitted during the previous 12-month period.
Let’s talk a bit about Tucson before we discuss what lies ahead for investors and homebuyers. Tucson is home to around half a million people. The Tucson housing market is larger than that, though, because the Tucson metropolitan area is home to around a million people in all. Tucson is Southern Arizona's thriving metropolis. Metropolitan Tucson has about a million residents, but the population increases dramatically between December and March when Snow Birds fly south to enjoy our pleasant winter. Tucson loves Snow Birds.
Is Tucson going to be one of the hottest real estate markets for investors in 2020 & 2021? One of the big factors in the real estate sector's performance is going to be Tucson's ability to continue to attract new companies and to attract other companies to come to this region. The more sustained growth in the Tucson real estate market buoys confidence in the area, allowing the market to overcome obstacles that have been problematic in the past. The Tucson area is slowly growing and has excellent long term prospects.
Like most cities nationwide, Tucson has experienced strong and steady real estate appreciation over the last couple of years. The real estate appreciation rate in Tucson in the last quarter was around 1.51%%, which amounts to an annual rate of 6.17%. However, it is quite unclear whether the rate of appreciation would remain steady or not due to the short term effects of the ongoing pandemic. Economic uncertainty might hold back sales volume for a short period in 2020. Most housing analysts expect Tucson house prices to remain flat or drop by a small fraction for the remainder of the year 2020.
In this article, we shall discuss some more important reasons why you may still want to consider buying Tucson investment properties in 2020. You will get a fair amount of knowledge of the fundamentals of this hot real estate market. Please note that many variables can potentially impact the value of a home in Tucson (or any other market) and some of these variables are impossible to predict in advance. Let’s take a deep look at the latest Tucson housing market trends to know what lies ahead.
Tucson Housing Market Trends & Statistics 2020
We shall now discuss some of the most recent housing trends in the Tucson area and compare it with the past couple of years. We shall mainly discuss median home prices, inventory, economy, growth, and neighborhoods, which will help you understand the way the local real estate market moves in this region. Tucson has been one of the hottest real estate markets in the country for many years. The residential real estate market in Tucson continues to churn unimpeded.
Tucson is currently a hot seller’s real estate market – which means that the demand from buyers is exceeding the current supply of homes for sale. The pricing of homes is trending higher and is more attractive for sellers in the current phase. The shortage of supply and an increase in the demand for housing will push the prices higher in the Tucson housing market.
The following analysis of the Tucson housing market area has been prepared by the “Tucson Association of Realtors.” The report compares key housing metrics of April 2020 with April 2019. Total real estate sales in Tucson for April 2020 was 1,014 single-family homes sold and 154 townhouse/condos sold. It was –19.4% year-over-year change for single-family homes and -35.3% year-over-year change for townhouse/condos from the previous year.
- New Listings decreased 27.4 percent for Single Family and 31.3 percent for Townhouse/Condo.
- Pending Sales decreased 18.4 percent for Single Family and 38.3 percent for Townhouse/Condo.
- Housing Inventory decreased 27.7 percent for Single Family and 5.9 percent for Townhouse/Condo.
- Median Sales Price increased 8.5 percent to $255,000 for Single Family and 10.9 percent to $169,950 for Townhouse/Condo.
- Days on Market decreased 27.9 percent for Single Family and 23.3 percent for Townhouse/Condo.
- Months Supply of Inventory decreased 32.0 percent for Single Family but increased 6.3 percent for Townhouse/Condo.
Here is the chart to give you a visual of how the median sales price in the Tucson housing market was trending for April 2020.
On Movoto.com, Tucson's current home resale inventory number is 1456, which has decreased by 30 percent from a year ago. Compared to last month (April) the inventory has decreased by 14%. The median list price per square foot in Tucson is $161. April 2020 was $158. Distressed properties such as foreclosures and short sales remained the same as a percentage of the total market in May.
|Key Housing Metrics||Current||1 Month Ago||1 Year Ago|
|Median List Price||$299,900||$284,439+5%||$299,000|
|Median Days on Movoto||55||48+14%||46+19%|
|Median Home Size||1,952||1,913+2%||2,030-3%|
Market Snapshot Courtesy of Movoto.com
These numbers can be positive or negative depending on which side of the fence you are — Buyer or Seller? It is quite evident that the ongoing pandemic has not had any major impact on Tucson's housing market. However, it is expected that social distancing, higher unemployment, and lower overall economic activity is likely to continue to constrain real estate activity in the near term. At the same time, the industry is adapting to the current environment by conducting business using technologies such as virtual showings and e-signing to help buyers and sellers with their housing needs in the face of these challenges.
Tucson Real Estate Market Forecast 2020 – 2021
What are the Tucson real estate market predictions? Tucson housing market 2020 is shaping up to continue the trend of the last few years as one of the hottest markets in the nation. Let us look at the price trends recorded by Zillow (a real estate database company) over the past few years. The Tucson house prices remained almost flat for a short period between 2014 to 2015. Since 2016, the median home price in Tucson has appreciated by roughly 41.2%, from 162,000 to $215,965.
Last year saw was the fourth consecutive year of home price gains. The current median home value in Tucson (on Zillow) is $215,965, trending up 7.6% year-over-year. According to Zillow’s statistics, currently, Tucson is a sizzling hot seller’s market. However, the latest Tucson real estate market forecast depicts a somewhat cooling-off trend for the next twelve months. The home prices are predicted to remain flat or may decrease by just 0.6% in the next twelve months. This is perhaps due to the short term impact of the coronavirus pandemic on real estate sales in the Tucson area.
Here is the visual representation of historical Tucson home prices and the latest forecast until March 2021.
Here is another short and crisp Tucson housing market forecast for the 3 years ending with the 3rd Quarter of 2021. The accuracy of this forecast for Tucson is 78% and it is predicting a positive trend. “LittleBigHomes.com” estimates that the probability of rising home prices in Tucson is 78% during this period. If this price forecast is correct, the Tucson home values will be higher in the 3rd Quarter of 2021 than they were in the 3rd Quarter of 2018.
Tucson Real Estate – Tucson, AZ Homes For Sale
The Tucson housing market has a mixture of owner-occupied and renter-occupied units. As per Neigborhoodscout.com, a real estate data provider, one and two-bedroom single-family detached are the most common housing units in Tucson. Other types of housing that are prevalent in Tucson include large apartment complexes, row houses (attached homes), duplexes, and homes converted to small apartments.
Tucson's single-family homes account for more than 50% of the city’s housing units. At the national level, the single-family rental homes have grown up to 30% within the last three years. Almost all the housing demand in the US in recent years has been filled by single-family rental units. With 2020 being, theoretically, in the middle of a boom, there are still 4 years for residential construction to surge. Most likely, a housing shortage will remain in 2020, keeping home prices high.
According to a report published by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (Office of Policy Development and Research), from 2000 through 2006, strong population growth contributed to an average of 8,050 for sale homes permitted, annually. Permitting of homes fell to 4,725 in 2007, and declined further by an average of 830 homes, or 26 percent, annually, to 1,400 homes in 2011 in response to the local economic contraction and housing market downturn.
Even with improved economic conditions and increased population growth, homebuilding activity increased only moderately, to an average of 2,350 homes a year from 2012 through 2017. During the 12 months ending March 2019, 3,175 homes were permitted, up from the 3,000 homes permitted during the previous 12-month period (preliminary data, with adjustments by the analyst). Since 2000, approximately 1 percent of total sales construction activity has been condominiums.
Currently, there are 1693 homes for sale in Tucson, AZ on Zillow. Additionally, there are 414 homes for rent. Under potential listings, there are about 2 Foreclosed and 213 Pre-Foreclosure homes. These are the delinquent properties that may be coming to the market soon but are not yet found on a multiple listing service (MLS).
- The median list price per square foot in Tucson is $144, which is lower than the Tucson Metro average of $146.
- The median price of homes for sale is $231,250.
- The median price of homes that were sold in March is $217,100.
- The median rent price in Tucson is $1,300, which is lower than the Tucson Metro median of $1,350.
There are currently 4524 homes for sale and 965 homes for rent in Tucson, AZ on Realtor.com, a real estate listings website. The newly listed homes are 353. According to their statistics, in April 2020, the Tucson housing market was a seller's market, which means there were roughly more buyers than there were active homes for sale. Demand outpaced the supply for favoring sellers in the region.
Ideally, a buyer would prefer a sale to asking price ratio that’s closer to 90%. The sellers in Tucson have managed to hold good leverage in these negotiations in the past month. Despite being a buyer’s real estate market, on average, they could sell homes for 99.52% of the asking price. A seller would always prefer scenarios that can yield a ratio of 100% or higher. The median list price of homes in Tucson, AZ was $254,000, trending up 5.9% year-over-year. The median sale price was $235,800.
Tucson Real Estate Foreclosure Statistics 2020
Here are some foreclosure statistics of the Tucson real estate market. The housing crisis had a significant effect on the Tucson housing market, but it fared better than Arizona and the nation during the housing crisis and has improved
since 2011. According to U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, as of March 2019, the rate of seriously delinquent loans and REO properties in the Tucson housing market area was 1.0 percent, down from 1.3 percent a year ago; that proportion is below the 1.6 percent rate for the nation but above the 0.8-percent rate for Arizona.
As per the Tucson foreclosure data by Zillow, in Tucson 0.8 homes are foreclosed (per 10,000). This is greater than the Tucson Metro value of 0.7 and also lower than the national value of 1.2. The percent of delinquent mortgages in Tucson is 0.9%, which is lower than the national value of 1.1%. The percent of Tucson homeowners underwater on their mortgage is 9.3%, which is higher than Tucson Metro at 9.2%.
There are currently 383 properties in Tucson, AZ that are in some stage of foreclosure (default, auction or bank-owned) while the number of homes listed for sale on RealtyTrac is 1,593. In April 2020, the number of properties that received a foreclosure filing in Tucson, AZ was 50% lower than the previous month and 48% lower than the same time last year.
|Potential Foreclosures in Tucson||383 (RealtyTrac)|
|Homes for Sale in Tucson||1593|
|Median List Price||$234,900 (2% rise vs Mar 2019)|
In Tucson, the zip code with the highest foreclosure rate is 85706, where 1 in every 1731 housing units is foreclosed. 85714 zip code has the lowest foreclosure rate, where 1 in every 2875 housing units become delinquent.
Here is the graph showing the number of new foreclosure filings in Tucson by foreclosure type.
Tucson Real Estate Market: Is It A Good Place For Investment?
Now that you know where Tucson is, you probably want to know why we’re recommending it to real estate investors. Investing in real estate is touted as a great way to become wealthy. Should you consider Tucson real estate investment? Many real estate investors have asked themselves if buying an investment property in Tucson is a good investment?
You need to drill deeper into local trends if you want to know what the market holds for the real estate investors and buyers in 2020. Although this article alone is not a comprehensive source to make a final investment decision for Tucson, we have collected ten evidence-based positive things for investors who are keen to buy an investment property in Tucson.
Let’s look at the state of the Tucson real estate market and the factors driving the market in the short and long term.
1. The Massive Seasonal Market
The Tucson real estate market like that of Phoenix sees a massive influx of snowbirds, retirees who flock here during the winter. That creates a large, seasonal rental market. The need for many retirees to sell their second homes when they can no longer travel or live independently provides an opportunity to snap up properties at a bargain rate. Better yet, a large number of those properties don’t have a mortgage on them. Other snowbirds sell their condo and move into a single-family home when they decide to stay in Tucson year-round.
2. Tucson's Military Market
Military service members and their families are another large rental market. Tucson is notable for having a large military base, Davis-Monthan Air Force Base. That employs around eight thousand people. However, unlike some other metropolitan areas, the local economy is rather diversified, so the rise and fall of military spending won’t crater the Tucson real estate market.
3. Tucson's Large Student Market
The second-largest private employer in the city is the University of Arizona. That college has around 45,000 students. The law school and medical school associated with the university attract students from around the country. Colleges provide a steady stream of renters, whether you’re renting out a building full of efficiency apartments or a single-family home shared by several students. However, because Tucson’s economy is not tied to the rise and fall of the college, if enrollment did decline at the college, people moving to the area for work could move in. That makes the Tucson real estate market far more stable than your typical college town.
4. The Large Tucson Rental Market Overall
Rental rates have been steadily rising in the Tucson area and median new-home prices are increasing year-over-year. The lower than average incomes in the Tucson area make the median home price of $216,000 too expensive for many would-be home buyers. Per capita income in 2018 was $22,645, while median household income was just under $41,625. This has created a large permanent rental population that will take advantage of any affordable housing stock.
Another factor in this equation is the limited supply of new housing in the price range most home buyers would be able to afford. There is a shortage of properties under $200,000 relative to demand, though the competition is stiff for properties at all levels except the $500,000 plus luxury market. This means that those who invest in the Tucson real estate market will guarantee that their property appreciates.
5. Tucson's Strong Job Growth Acceleration
We’ve already addressed the university and military base generating demand for rentals in the Tucson housing market. Another factor driving demand is a strong job market overall. Raytheon Missile Systems, for example, employs around 10,000 people. While Tucson isn’t the capital of Arizona, it is home to several governmental agencies. The US Customs and Border Protection division, for example, employs several thousand people in and around Tucson. The State of Arizona and Pima County each have several thousand jobs in this area, as well.
Despite a slowing of net natural change, population growth in the Tucson Housing Market Area accelerated since 2016 because of increased net in-migration. During the period from 2011 to 2016, the net in-migration was averaging 3,400 people annually while net natural change slowed to an average of 2,875 people a year. Even though the net natural change has slowed further, to an average of 1,500 people a year since 2016, population growth accelerated to an average of 8,750, or 0.9 percent, a year because net in-migration increased to an average of 7,250 people annually as job growth accelerated.
6. Tucson's Real Estate is Affordable
The average detached single-family home can be bought for less than $200,000, though prices rose 6% year over year. Duplex units cost around $130,000 each. Townhome units cost around $80,000 each when found in groups of three or more. RVs can be found for less than $40,000, while snowbirds provide an instant market for renting out these cheap, low maintenance properties. Demand in this area is so great that some are advocating the construction of new RV parks to help the Tucson economy. Relatively affordable housing attracts people to Tucson from Los Angeles and San Diego Counties in California. The average home sales prices are approximately 60 percent lower in the Tucson housing market.
7. Opportunities For Better Return On Investment
Tucson's real estate market is thriving, and many people would like to call it home. Tucson rental property investment not only provides you monthly income but its also a long term investment. The average apartment rent in Tucson is $921, a 6% increase compared to the previous year. This is somewhat lower than the median US rental rate and a little cheaper than the Arizona median rate. Many people move to Tucson and then commute to work in surrounding cities. Tucson’s relatively slow and steady growth rate means that new construction is at a crawl.
That is causing rents to rise faster than average, especially at the low end of the market. Another factor propping up home prices is the relatively small inventory on the market; snowbirds typically sell when they need to instead of based on market conditions. The average size for a Tucson, AZ apartment is 762 square feet, but this number varies greatly depending on unit type, with cheap and luxury alternatives for houses and apartments alike. Studio apartments are the smallest and most affordable, 1-bedroom apartments are closer to the average, while 2-bedroom apartments and 3-bedroom apartments offer more generous square footage.
Tucson's appreciation rate notably has been below the national average for the last ten years. The average annual home appreciation rate in Tucson during the period has been just 0.09%, which is lower than 70% of US communities. Many investors believe that single-family homes are the best choice for a Tucson rental property. That is because they appreciate more over time compared to other types of properties. When you own a rental property in Tucson, you aren’t just making income from the month to rent a month. You have a long-term investment that will pay off down the road.
Another issue with the Arizona market is the fact that home values are just now reaching prices they were at in 2008. That created a large number of accidental landlords who bought homes for $200,000 in 2008 and have been renting properties located in the Tucson real estate market though they have left. This creates an excellent opportunity for investors who can pay cash to buy out these long-distance landlords.
8. The Tucson Area’s Demographic Momentum
The median age of Tucson residents is 33.2, several years lower than the national median age of 37-38. A large number of students try to find work in the area, and many start their families here. Growth is a steady 1%, a little higher than the national 0.7% growth rate. However, Tucson is notable for the sheer number of people moving to the city from around the country, adding to the population and nearly guaranteeing their children will remain here. That is aside from the slow but steady international migrants to the area, as well.
9. Tucson is Landlord Friendly
Arizona is incredibly landlord-friendly. Evictions are seamless. Arizona’s non-compliance laws require the tenant to pay rent and provide accurate information or else they are guilty of breaching the contract. If the tenant breaches their contract, the lease can be voided within ten days. Arizona has limited renters’ protections, but those are focused on residents in mobile homes. For example, there are payment grade period laws for those renting mobile homes but not those renting a condo or single-family home. There are limits on late fees charged on late rent for those in mobile homes, but not for those staying in an apartment or rented single-family home.
10. Tucson Has Low Property Taxes
Arizona ranks 38th out of 50 states in the property taxes paid as a percentage of the property’s value. That average rate was 0.70%. The national average is 1.19%, while New Jersey takes the unfortunate lead at 2.40%. Arizona counties and cities can tack on their property tax bill. The per capita state and local property tax collections cost the average resident $1000 a year, placing Arizona 34th out of the 50 states.
Tucson Real Estate Market: Tucson Investment Properties
Are you looking for an investment property in the Tucson real estate market? Maybe you have done a bit of real estate investing in Tucson but want to take things further and make it into more than a hobby on the side. It’s only wise to think about how you can and should be investing your money. In any property investment, cash flow is gold. The Tucson real estate investing market has recovered and is poised for slow, steady, and certain long term growth. The shifting demographics and known groups eager to sell at the right price provides an excellent opportunity to find bargains almost anywhere in the Tucson real estate market. An investment property that costs $150,000 is what some experts recommend starting with.
Good cash flow from Tucson investment properties means the investment is, needless to say, profitable. A bad cash flow, on the other hand, means you won’t have money on hand to repay your debt. Therefore, finding the best investment property in Tucson in a growing neighborhood would be key to your success. If you invest wisely in Tucson's real estate, you could secure your future.
If you are a beginner in the business of cash flow real estate investing, it very important to read good books on real estate. The less expensive the Tucson investment property is, the lower your ongoing expenses will be. As with any real estate purchase, act wisely. Evaluate the specifics of the Tucson housing market at the time you intend to purchase. When looking for the best real estate investments in Tucson, you should focus on neighborhoods with relatively high population density and employment growth. Both of them translate into high demand for housing.
Some of the best neighborhoods in or around Tucson, Arizona are Rancho Vistoso, Continental Ranch, Catalina Foothills, Central Tucson, El Montevideo, Landsdale, Rincon Vista at Rita Ranch, Sycamore Park Village, Rosemont West, Broadmoor-Broadway, El Encanto Estates, Desert Aire-Loma Linda, Peter Howell, Vista Montana Estates, Highland Vista Cinco Via, and San Clemente.
The asking price of single-family homes for sale in Tucson (on Realtor.com) starts from $75,000 for a 2-bedroom house and can go up to $7.9M for a luxury 7-bedroom house located in Catalina Foothills neighborhood. Catalina Foothills is an expensive neighborhood to live in Tucson, with a median home price of $345,000. Nearby Neighborhoods are South Harrison ($225,000), Eastside ($247,500), Silverado Hills ($350,000).
Flowing Wells is quite an affordable neighborhood in Tucson, with a median home price of $165,000. Sam Hughes has a median listing price of $435K, making it the most expensive neighborhood. Julia Keen is the most affordable neighborhood in the entire Tucson housing market area, with a median listing price of $160K.
New construction was on the rise in 2019 and is expected to continue into 2020. During the 12 months ending March 2019, the average sales price of a new home increased by $7,000, or 2 percent, to $323,500 compared with an average
increase of $17,500, or 7 percent, annually from 2012 through 2017. There are currently 427 new construction houses available for sale in the Tucson housing market (on Realtor.com). You can get a 3-bedroom new construction single-family house at an asking price of around $156,000 in the located in Catalina Foothills neighborhood.
Home prices in Tucson are near the national average for all cities and towns in the United States. Here is a snapshot that shows the median home values in some of the popular neighborhoods of Tucson.
If housing supply meets housing demand, real estate investors should not miss the opportunity since entry prices of homes remain affordable. You can also collaborate and learn from savvy real estate investors who have retired early on in their lives by investing in some of the hottest real estate markets like Tucson, Arizona. You should also join real estate investment clubs in Tucson and try to make connections with fellow investors.
NORADA REAL ESTATE INVESTMENTS has extensive experience investing in turnkey real estate and cash-flow properties. We strive to set the standard for our industry and inspire others by raising the bar on providing exceptional real estate investment opportunities in many other growth markets in the United States. We can help you succeed by minimizing risk and maximizing the profitability of your investment property in Tucson.
Consult with one of the investment counselors who can help build you a custom portfolio of Tucson turnkey properties. These are “Cash-Flow Rental Properties” located in some of the best neighborhoods of Tucson.
All you have to do is fill up this form and schedule a consultation at your convenience. We’re standing by to help you take the guesswork out of real estate investing. By researching and structuring complete Tucson turnkey real estate investments, we help you succeed by minimizing risk and maximizing profitability.
Buying or selling real estate, for a majority of investors, is one of the most important decisions they will make. Choosing a real estate professional/counselor continues to be a vital part of this process. They are well-informed about critical factors that affect your specific market areas, such as changes in market conditions, market forecasts, consumer attitudes, best locations, timing, and interest rates.
Tucson & Neighboring Real Estate Investment Opportunities
Apart from the Tucson market, you can also invest in the Phoenix real estate market. Phoenix is a hot place for real estate investment. Phoenix deals with a large retiree population, both permanent and seasonal. To accommodate aging in place, they’ve loosened the rules on building “accessory dwelling units”, commonly known as mother-in-law suites. The city also recognizes the need for affordable housing, and they allow people to build and rent out ADUs as affordable housing, especially if the property is within walking distance of public transit. Buy a house, rehab it, and build a granny flat, and you have two rental properties for not much more than the price of one. And the city is almost certain to approve it because they want denser development.
The second real estate market in the state of Arizona lies in the city of Scottsdale. If you are an investor, Scottsdale has a track record of being one of the best long term real estate investments in the nation. You’ll see better than average returns on the average Scottsdale real estate investment property, and its value will be bolstered by a variety of factors. This makes Scottsdale a little better choice for investors than Phoenix.
Chandler is another hot real estate market that is bordered by the cities Tempe, Mesa, and Phoenix. The Chandler housing market is home to a decently sized student population, but its economy isn’t dependent on the rise and fall of one school. The Chandler-Gilbert Community College system caters to local students. Western International University and Ottawa University have campuses here. The massive Arizona State University campus in Tempe is only fourteen miles away. An affordable Chandler real estate investment property that can advertise a ten-minute drive to that campus will see a steady stream of students signing up.
Let us know which real estate markets you consider best for real estate investing!
Remember, caveat emptor still applies when buying a property anywhere. Some of the information contained in this article was pulled from third party sites mentioned under references. Although the information is believed to be reliable, Norada Real Estate Investments makes no representations, warranties, or guarantees, either express or implied, as to whether the information presented is accurate, reliable, or current. All information presented should be independently verified through the references given below. As a general policy, the Norada Real Estate Investments makes no claims or assertions about the future housing market conditions across the US.
- Latest Market Data, Trends, and Statistics
- Student market
- Low cost of real estate
- Low property taxes
- Good rental market
- Landlord friendly
- New Construction & Population Growth