Forbes recently released their list of the ten worst selling housing markets with very few surprises. Topping the list was Miami, Florida where the glut of inventory continues to linger.
Of the 40 largest metropolitan markets analysed, not one market showed any sign of price appreciation. With slow sales and dropping prices the aggressive investor may be able to pick off some very good deals in these markets. Research, patience and a sharpened sense for value can land you a great real estate investment.
Here are the ten worst markets according for Forbes:
10. Denver, CO
Median price: $230,100
Percent change: -6.3%
Unsold homes: 21,756
Sales rate: 2.9% per month
Colorado ranks as one of the worst states for foreclosures due to stretches between Denver and Colorado Springs–many of which are part of the Denver metro–that were overbuilt and are now suffering high default rates. The good news? Jobs are still growing here by 1.8% in year-over-year terms, even as the national economy heads into a downturn.
9. San Diego, CA
Median price: $522,900
Percent change: -9.8%
Unsold homes: 18,450
Sales rate: 2.7% per month
Prices in San Diego sank throughout 2007, making the 10% fourth-quarter dip no surprise to anyone who had been paying attention. Even though inventory hasn’t been melting away, the area’s post-September 2007 peak-sales rate has picked up.
8. Baltimore, MD
Median price: $275,100
Percent change: -1%
Unsold homes: 9,210
Sales rate: 2.5% per month
In 2005, before prices began dropping, Baltimore’s housing market had settled into an equilibrium point where it maintained an unsold housing cushion of 3,500 homes. When sales sagged and new homes came into the market, inventory nearly tripled, a growth rate also seen in Los Angeles, which has been severely overbuilt.
7. Chicago, IL
Median price: $261,000
Percent change: -2.6%
Unsold homes: 72,842
Sales rate: 2.3% per month
Chicago’s market difficulties haven’t received a great deal of attention outside of the Midwest, due largely to the fact that it looks healthy compared with neighboring Michigan and Ohio. Still, the market almost doubled its unsold inventory between 2005 and 2008, and that stock has evaporated very slowly.
6. Washington, D.C.
Median price: $400,100
Percent change: -5.1%
Unsold homes: 47,432
Sales rate: 2.2% per month
Washington D.C.’s metro area home-price decline is the result of exurban overbuilding, particularly in the corridor between D.C. and Baltimore. Foreclosures hamper the area, but at 1.1% it doesn’t compare to Phoenix or Tampa, which are double that. Homes simply haven’t been selling fast enough to offset the overbuilding that more than doubled housing inventory in the last two years.
5. Los Angeles, CA
Median price: $509,700
Percent change: -13.1%
Unsold homes: 100,770
Sales rate: 2% per month
Between 2005 and the end of 2007, people weren’t buying homes, but they were certainly building them: During that time, housing inventory in Los Angeles almost tripled. The foreclosure rate in L.A. isn’t as high as the Inland Empire, but it was enough to contribute to the glut. Since the peak of this October 2007, sellers have been slightly better off, but the sales rate is still slow.
4. Tampa, FL
Median price: $201,600
Percent change: -12.2%
Unsold homes: 56,491
Sales rate: 0.8% per month
Prices in Tampa are among the lowest of Florida’s major cities. Homes here are cheaper than in Orlando and Miami, yet prices are still falling at double-digit clips. Buyers are not biting, even though 44% of Tampa sellers have reduced prices from original listings. Despite having 1.4 million less people than the Phoenix metro, the two markets have approximately the same number of unsold homes.
3. Phoenix, AZ
Median price: $241,700
Percent change: -7.8%
Unsold homes: 53,717
Sales rate: 0.6% per month
During the housing boom, cities like Phoenix turned into drive-until-you-qualify markets, where lax expansion policies allowed sprawl in excess of what the market has now shown it could handle. Housing prices have come down, and 47% of sellers have reduced their prices as of last month. But buyers, it seems, are awaiting further dips.
2. Orlando, FL
Median price: $240,400
Percent change: -11.7%
Unsold homes: 34,384
Sales rate: 0.6% per month
Orlando’s inventory in the last year has remained stagnant. The 34,384 homes on the market in the fourth quarter of last year were 4,000 more than a year ago, and based on the sales rate, the city shows no signs of contracting to its equilibrium point of 19,000 available homes two years ago.
1. Miami, FL
Median price: $345,900
Percent change: -5.7%
Unsold homes: 81,613
Sales rate: 0.2% per month
Miami has the ninth-highest foreclosure rate in the country, according to RealtyTrac, an online foreclosure brokerage company. Even though there have been drastic construction cutbacks, the rate is so high that it’s not clear that Miami has reached any sort of inventory peak, as homes keep going onto the market instead coming off. Expect prices to continue falling until buyers start to see bargains.
